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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 5?
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Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 5?

Closes April 5, 2026

Polymarket Price

98%YES
2%NO

Volume 24h

$52K

Liquidity

$35K

Bid / Ask

99% / 99%

Spread

0.40pp

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-0.4pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 5?" at 98% YES / 2% NO. In the last 24 hours, $52K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 5, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 5?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 98%, NO 2%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1777516

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

97% YES

Apr 5, 2026

Trough probability

91% YES — lowest in period

Apr 5, 2026

Current

98% YES (+3.0pp recent)

Apr 5, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 98%99%
Buy YES@ 98¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 2¢
Edge

+25.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO+25.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this