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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 25?
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Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 25?

Closes March 25, 2026

Polymarket Price

76%YES
24%NO

Volume 24h

$21K

Liquidity

$20K

Bid / Ask

75% / 77%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

81%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+6.5pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 29?

March

Full event →
above $1,700 on March 25?
100%
above $1,800 on March 25?
100%
above $1,900 on March 25?
99%
above $1,700 on March 27?
99%
above $1,800 on March 27?
99%
above $1,800 on March 29?
98%
above $2,000 on March 25?
98%
above $1,900 on March 27?
97%
above $1,900 on March 29?
95%
above $2,000 on March 27?
88%
above $2,000 on March 29?
83%
above $2,100 on March 25?
75%
above $2,100 on March 27?
64%
above $2,100 on March 29?
61%
above $2,200 on March 29?
37%
above $2,200 on March 27?
33%
above $2,200 on March 25?
20%
above $2,300 on March 29?
17%
above $2,300 on March 27?
12%
above $2,400 on March 29?
7%
above $2,400 on March 27?
3%
above $2,500 on March 29?
2%
above $2,300 on March 25?
2%
above $2,600 on March 29?
1%
above $2,500 on March 27?
1%
above $2,400 on March 25?
0%
above $2,600 on March 27?
0%
above $2,500 on March 25?
0%
above $2,600 on March 25?
0%
above $2,700 on March 25?
0%

30 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+17.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

61% YES

Mar 24, 2026

Biggest move: +17.5pp

61% → 78%

Mar 24, 2026

Peak probability

78% YES — highest in period

Mar 24, 2026

Current

78% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 24, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 76%99%
Buy YES@ 76¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 24¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 25?" at 76% YES / 24% NO. In the last 24 hours, $21K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 81%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 25?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 76%, NO 24%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1640415

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Venue Divergence

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Correlated Markets

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Event Cluster

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