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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 12?
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Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 12?

Closes April 12, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
98%FIS
+2ppvs market 96%
underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +2.0pp above current market price; market at 96% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.2% ↑, ETH +1.8% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC +0.2% ↑, ETH +1.8% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓
+2.0pp
Live compute11:48 PM

Polymarket Price

96%YES
4%NO

Volume 24h

$17K

Liquidity

$24K

Bid / Ask

95% / 97%

Spread

1.60pp

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+2.5pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 12?" at 96% YES / 4% NO. In the last 24 hours, $17K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 1.60 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 96%, NO 4%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1879339

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-1.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

97% YES

Apr 11, 2026

Current

96% YES (-0.2pp recent)

Apr 11, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 96%99%
Buy YES@ 96¢
Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly9.1%
½ Kelly4.5%
Buy NO@ 4¢

-9.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 9.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this