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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 25?
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Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 25?

Closes March 25, 2026

Polymarket Price

19%YES
81%NO

Volume 24h

$25K

Liquidity

$22K

Bid / Ask

18% / 20%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

14%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-26.4pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 29?

March

Full event →
above $1,700 on March 25?
100%
above $1,800 on March 25?
100%
above $1,900 on March 25?
99%
above $1,700 on March 27?
99%
above $1,800 on March 27?
99%
above $1,800 on March 29?
98%
above $2,000 on March 25?
98%
above $1,900 on March 27?
97%
above $1,900 on March 29?
95%
above $2,000 on March 27?
89%
above $2,000 on March 29?
83%
above $2,100 on March 25?
76%
above $2,100 on March 27?
65%
above $2,100 on March 29?
62%
above $2,200 on March 29?
36%
above $2,200 on March 27?
33%
above $2,200 on March 25?
19%
above $2,300 on March 29?
19%
above $2,300 on March 27?
12%
above $2,400 on March 29?
7%
above $2,400 on March 27?
3%
above $2,300 on March 25?
2%
above $2,500 on March 29?
2%
above $2,600 on March 29?
2%
above $2,500 on March 27?
2%
above $2,400 on March 25?
0%
above $2,600 on March 27?
0%
above $2,500 on March 25?
0%
above $2,600 on March 25?
0%
above $2,700 on March 25?
0%

30 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+11.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

10% YES

Mar 24, 2026

Biggest move: +11.5pp

11% → 23%

Mar 24, 2026

Peak probability

23% YES — highest in period

Mar 24, 2026

Current

21% YES (-1.5pp recent)

Mar 24, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 19%99%
Buy YES@ 19¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 81¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 25?" at 19% YES / 81% NO. In the last 24 hours, $25K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 25?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 19%, NO 81%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1640417

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Venue Divergence

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Correlated Markets

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Event Cluster

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