Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 12?
Closes April 12, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +2.1pp above current market price; market at 3% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.2% ↑, ETH +1.9% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$35K
Liquidity
$23K
Bid / Ask
2% / 3%
Spread
0.80pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 12?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $35K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.80 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1879344
This event has 11 active outcome markets. price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 12: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 12: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 12: 100%.
price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 12?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
10% YES
Apr 11, 2026
Current
4% YES (-1.4pp recent)
Apr 11, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+17.6%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this