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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 27?
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Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 27?

Closes March 27, 2026

Polymarket Price

5%YES
95%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$17K

Bid / Ask

1% / 3%

Spread

1.50pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-58.8pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 27?

March

Full event →
above $1,900 on March 25?
100%
above $1,700 on March 25?
100%
above $1,800 on March 25?
100%
above $2,000 on March 25?
100%
above $1,600 on March 27?
100%
above $1,700 on March 27?
99%
above $1,800 on March 27?
99%
above $1,900 on March 27?
98%
above $2,100 on March 25?
98%
above $2,000 on March 27?
95%
above $2,100 on March 27?
82%
above $2,200 on March 25?
49%
above $2,200 on March 27?
49%
between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 25?
48%
above $2,300 on March 27?
18%
above $2,400 on March 27?
5%
above $2,300 on March 25?
2%
above $2,500 on March 27?
2%
above $2,400 on March 25?
0%
above $2,600 on March 27?
0%
above $2,500 on March 25?
0%
above $2,600 on March 25?
0%
above $2,700 on March 25?
0%

23 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+0.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

5% YES

Mar 25, 2026

Current

5% YES (+0.2pp recent)

Mar 25, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 5%99%
Buy YES@ 5¢
Edge

+3.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.2%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO@ 95¢

-0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+3.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 27?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.50 percentage points. The market closes on March 27, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-25). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 27?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1662860

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Venue Divergence

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Correlated Markets

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Event Cluster

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