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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 15?
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Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 15?

Closes April 15, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
11%FIS
+1ppvs market 10%
underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +0.8pp above current market price; market at 10% may be underpriced with macro signals showing ETH +0.7% ↑, S&P +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroETH +0.7% ↑, S&P +0.2% ↑
+0.8pp
Live compute10:24 AM

Polymarket Price

10%YES
90%NO

Volume 24h

$7K

Liquidity

$17K

Bid / Ask

9% / 11%

Spread

1.70pp

Expert Signal

5%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-50.2pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 15?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 1.70 percentage points. The market closes on April 15, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 15?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1919262

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+1.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

9% YES

Apr 14, 2026

Current

10% YES (-0.9pp recent)

Apr 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 10%99%
Buy YES@ 10¢
Edge

+1.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.2%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO@ 90¢

-0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this