Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 15?
Closes April 15, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing BTC +0.1% ↑, ETH -1.5% ↓, S&P +1.1% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$21K
Liquidity
$17K
Bid / Ask
17% / 19%
Spread
1.90pp
Expert Signal
11%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 15?" at 16% YES / 84% NO. In the last 24 hours, $21K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 1.90 percentage points. The market closes on April 15, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 15?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1919260
This event has 44 active outcome markets. price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 16: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 14: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 17: 100%.
price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 15?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
36% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Biggest move: -17.8pp
45% → 27%
Apr 14, 2026
Peak probability
45% YES — highest in period
Apr 14, 2026
Current
18% YES (-13.0pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-1.8%
EV per $ wagered
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this