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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 22?
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Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 22?

Closes March 22, 2026

Polymarket Price

0%YES
100%NO

Volume 24h

$13K

Liquidity

$27K

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March?

March

Full event →
above $1,800 on March 22?
100%
above $1,700 on March 22?
100%
above $1,600 on March 22?
100%
above $1,900 on March 22?
100%
above $2,000 on March 22?
99%
above $2,100 on March 22?
64%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March?
15%
$2,600 in March?
10%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March?
6%
above $2,200 on March 22?
3%
$2,800 in March?
2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March?
2%
$3,000 in March?
1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March?
1%
$3,200 in March?
1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March?
0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March?
0%
$4,000 in March?
0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March?
0%
$3,800 in March?
0%
$3,600 in March?
0%
$3,400 in March?
0%
above $2,400 on March 22?
0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March?
0%
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in March?
0%
greater than $2,500 on March 22?
0%
$2,600 March 16-22?
0%
$2,700 March 16-22?
0%
$2,500 March 16-22?
0%
less than $1,600 on March 22?
0%
$2,800 March 16-22?
0%
$2,900 March 16-22?
0%
above $2,600 on March 22?
0%
above $2,500 on March 22?
0%

34 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-26.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

27% YES

Mar 15, 2026

Trough probability

0% YES — lowest in period

Mar 21, 2026

Biggest move: -21.0pp

27% → 6%

Mar 15, 2026

Current

0% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 22?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on March 22, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 22?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1598714

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Forecaster Signals

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Venue Divergence

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Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.

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Event Cluster

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