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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 12?
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Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 12?

Closed April 12, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
71%FIS
−6ppvs market 77%
overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -6.2pp below current market price; market at 77% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -2.9% ↓, ETH -4.2% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC -2.9% ↓, ETH -4.2% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓
-6.2pp
Live compute02:11 PM

Polymarket Price

40%YES
60%NO

Volume 24h

$9K

Liquidity

$17K

Bid / Ask

75% / 78%

Spread

3.40pp

Expert Signal

77%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 12?" at 40% YES / 60% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 77%. The bid-ask spread is 3.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 40%, NO 60%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1879415

Outcome Markets7 markets

This event has 7 active outcome markets. price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,20: 40%, price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,30: 20%, price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,40: 0%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~39%.

price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April

40%
price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April
20%
price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April
0%
price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April
0%
price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 12?
0%
price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April
0%
price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April
0%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+72.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

28% YES

Apr 12, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

56%

Apr 12, 2026

Biggest move: +19.8pp

56% → 76%

Apr 12, 2026

Peak probability

100% YES — highest in period

Apr 12, 2026

Current

100% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 12, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 40%99%
Buy YES@ 40¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 60¢
Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this