Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Closes November 3, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.5pp below current market price; market at 48% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -2.7% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑, DXY +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$27K
Liquidity
$200K
Bid / Ask
48% / 49%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
49%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?" at 49% YES / 51% NO. In the last 24 hours, $27K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 49%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on November 3, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 49%, NO 51%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/562794
This event has 12 active outcome markets. Democratic Party control the Senate after the: 52%, Republican Party control the Senate after the: 49%, Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seat: 27%.
Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midt
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
49% YES
Apr 5, 2026
Current
49% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 5, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.0%
EV per $ wagered
-1.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this