Markets/Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:32 AM UTC

Closes November 3, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES

96%NO

Volume 24h

$56K

Liquidity

$14K

Bid / Ask

4% / 4%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the Republican Party control the House after the…

2026

Full event →

Will the Republican Party control the House a

16%

fewer than 22

13%

3 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-2.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

6% YES

Mar 19, 2026

Current

4% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 20, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 4%99%

Buy YES@ 4¢

-4.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 96¢

Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly4.8%

½ Kelly2.4%

Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 4.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $56K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on November 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/907690