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Markets/Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?
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Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

42%YES
59%NO

Volume 24h

$216K

Liquidity

$48K

Bid / Ask

41% / 42%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

36%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence0%
methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

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the most seats in the next South Australian p
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the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliamen
95%
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)
90%
the most seats in the Løgting in the 2026 Far
81%
the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatina
63%
the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-P
60%
the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliame
59%
the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian p
56%
the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian p
42%
the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliame
42%
the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-P
39%
the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatina
37%
the most seats in the Løgting in the 2026 Far
13%
the most seats in the Løgting in the 2026 Far
6%
the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliament
5%
the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliament
3%
the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian p
2%
the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian p
2%
the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian p
2%
the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliamen
2%
the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-P
2%
the most seats in the Løgting in the 2026 Far
1%
the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian p
1%
the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian p
1%
the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliament
1%
the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatina
1%
Will Prerod – Party of Vladimir Prebilič (PVP
1%
the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian p
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliament
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliament
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliament
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliament
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliamen
0%
the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian p
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliament
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliame
0%
the most seats in the next Hungarian parliame
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliame
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliame
0%
Will New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi)
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliame
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatina
0%
the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-P
0%
the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-P
0%
the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-P
0%
the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-P
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatina
0%
Will Prerod – Party of Vladimir Prebilič (PVP
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliame
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatina
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatina
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatina
0%
the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-P
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliame
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliame
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliame
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliame
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliame
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliame
0%

62 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-50.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

93% YES

Mar 8, 2026

Trough probability

33% YES — lowest in period

Mar 20, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

44%

Mar 19, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 20, 2026

Biggest move: -25.5pp

81% → 56%

Mar 18, 2026

Current

43% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 42%99%
Buy YES@ 42¢
Edge

+1.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 59¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?" at 42% YES / 58% NO. In the last 24 hours, $216K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 36%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 42%, NO 58%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/954518

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