Will Tisza win 120-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
15% / 17%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
16%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Tisza win <70 seats in the Hungarian National…
2026
15 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
25% YES
Mar 28, 2026
Trough probability
17% YES — lowest in period
Mar 30, 2026
Biggest move: -5.5pp
24% → 18%
Mar 30, 2026
Current
17% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Mar 30, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Tisza win 120-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?" at 23% YES / 77% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will Tisza win 120-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 23%, NO 77%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1570167
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Forecaster Signals
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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