Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
24% / 26%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
19%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Tisza win <70 seats in the Hungarian National…
14 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
25% YES
Mar 28, 2026
Current
26% YES (-1.0pp recent)
Mar 28, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?" at 25% YES / 75% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 19%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-28). "Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 25%, NO 75%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1570168
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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