Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -2.0pp below current market price; market at 11% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -1.2% ↓, VIX -1.3% ↓.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$35K
Liquidity
$21K
Bid / Ask
10% / 12%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
11%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $35K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1929773
This event has 3 active outcome markets. Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in: 48%, Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the St: 11%, Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium : 8%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~34%.
Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Ho
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
14% YES
Apr 12, 2026
Current
11% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 12, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this