Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$91K
Liquidity
$35K
Bid / Ask
11% / 11%
Spread
0.40pp
Expert Signal
11%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $91K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1707608
This event has 3 active outcome markets. April 30, 2026: 11%, December 31, 2026: 8%, April 30, 2026: 1%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~80%.
Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
18% YES
Apr 4, 2026
Current
11% YES (-0.3pp recent)
Apr 4, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this