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Markets/Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?
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Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

22%YES
78%NO

Volume 24h

$10K

Liquidity

$7K

Bid / Ask

21% / 24%

Spread

3.60pp

Expert Signal

22%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-14.6pp

Key Moments

First recorded

37% YES

Mar 29, 2026

Biggest move: -10.9pp

35% → 24%

Mar 29, 2026

Current

23% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 29, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 22%99%
Buy YES@ 22¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 78¢
Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?" at 22% YES / 78% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 22%. The bid-ask spread is 3.60 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-29). "Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 22%, NO 78%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1455618