Will Trump visit China by May 31?
Closes March 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$18K
Liquidity
$30K
Bid / Ask
64% / 65%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
65%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
April
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
67% YES
Mar 16, 2026
Trough probability
57% YES — lowest in period
Mar 17, 2026
Biggest move: +16.0pp
62% → 78%
Mar 17, 2026
Peak probability
78% YES — highest in period
Mar 17, 2026
Current
64% YES (+0.5pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.8%
EV per $ wagered
-1.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump visit China by May 31?" at 65% YES / 35% NO. In the last 24 hours, $18K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 65%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Trump visit China by May 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 65%, NO 35%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1611527
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Forecaster Signals
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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