Markets/Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?

Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?

Market Price

2%YES

98%NO

Vol 24h$70K

Liquidity$29K

Bid / Ask2% / 2%

Spread0.30pp

ClosesApr 30, 2026

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets4 markets

4 deadline markets. Market implies ~70% chance none resolve YES.

by May 31

Trump visit Pakistan by May 31

14%

by April 30

JD Vance visit Pakistan by April 30

10%

by April 30

Trump visit Pakistan by April 30

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $70K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30pp. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-26). "Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2008302