ForecastMind
Markets/Will Trump's remarks not air?
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Will Trump's remarks not air?

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES
99%NO

Volume 24h

$18K

Liquidity

$25K

Bid / Ask

1% / 1%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump's remarks not air?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $18K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Trump's remarks not air?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1813652

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. Trump's remarks not air?: 98%, Trump's remarks not air?: 1%.

Trump's remarks not air?
98%

Trump's remarks not air?

1%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

1% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Current

1% YES (-0.4pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this