Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Closes November 7, 2028
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$438K
Liquidity
$211K
Bid / Ask
4% / 4%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential…
2028
53 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
2% YES
Feb 21, 2026
Current
4% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+8.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $438K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on November 7, 2028.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/561996
Correlated Markets
Explore all →Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.