Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Closes July 20, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$227K
Liquidity
$1.4M
Bid / Ask
1% / 1%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $227K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on July 20, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/558985
This event has 49 active outcome markets. Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?: 39%, Spain: 16%, France: 13%.
Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
0% YES
Apr 1, 2026
Current
1% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this