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Markets/Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
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Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Closes October 10, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES
96%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$45K

Bid / Ask

4% / 4%

Spread

0.30pp

Expert Signal

4%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence0%
methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

2026

Full event →
the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
11%
the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
9%
the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
7%
the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
5%
the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
5%
the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
4%
the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
4%
the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
3%
the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
2%
the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
2%
the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
2%
the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
2%
the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
2%
the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
2%
the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
2%
the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
1%
the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
1%
the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
1%
the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
1%
the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
0%

20 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+0.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

4% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Current

4% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 4%99%
Buy YES@ 4¢
Edge

+9.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 96¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+9.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on October 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/637008

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