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Markets/Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
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Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

14%YES
86%NO

Volume 24h

$120K

Liquidity

$77K

Bid / Ask

13% / 13%

Spread

0.30pp

Expert Signal

14%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $120K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/665480

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: 14%, April 30: 1%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~85%.

US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

14%
US withdraw from NATO by April 30?
1%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+1.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

14% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Current

16% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 14%99%
Buy YES@ 14¢
Edge

+2.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 86¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this