Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?
FM Estimate
3%Market Price
5%Wikipedia Attention
This event has 3 active outcome markets. US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: 12%, June 30: 5%, April 30: 1%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~83%.
US withdraw from NATO by June 30?
Price History · 30 days
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✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 3.40pp. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-17). "Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1992954