Markets/Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:32 AM UTC

Closes October 10, 2026

Polymarket Price

9%YES

92%NO

Volume 24h

$238

Liquidity

$98K

Bid / Ask

8% / 9%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

2026

Full event →

the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

11%

the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

20 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

9% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Current

9% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 20, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 9%99%

Buy YES@ 9¢

Edge

+5.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 92¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+5.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $238 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on October 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/637004