Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?
March
Consensus Probability
93%
Moderate50%
Polymarket66% avg · 6 markets
Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. Some spread between venues — treat as directional signal.
Contributing Markets
| Venue | Market | YES | Volume | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31? | 96% | $142K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31? | 95% | $27K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Russia capture Rodynske by April 30? | 99% | $22K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by April 30? | 97% | $18K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026? | 3% | $5K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? | 7% | $3K | standalone |