Will the Democratic Party win the HI-02 House seat?
ForecastMind estimates 90% — market may be overpriced by 3pp vs our model · Macro fundamentals: -5.0pp
Market Price
FM Estimate
medium confidence · 2 signals
Wikipedia Attention
This event has 22 active outcome markets. the Democratic Party: 95%, the Democratic Party: 94%, the Democratic Party: 94%.
Democratic Party win the HI-02 House seat?
Price History · 30 days
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✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Democratic Party win the HI-02 House seat?" at 93% YES / 7% NO. In the last 24 hours, $32K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 93%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on November 3, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-22). "Will the Democratic Party win the HI-02 House seat?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 93%, NO 7%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1283281