Will the Republican Party win the MA-04 House seat?
Closes November 3, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -0.6pp below current market price; market at 3% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -4.1% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑, DXY -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$21K
Bid / Ask
3% / 6%
Spread
2.70pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party win the MA-04 House seat?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 2.70 percentage points. The market closes on November 3, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the Republican Party win the MA-04 House seat?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1283664
This event has 24 active outcome markets. the Democratic Party: 95%, the Democratic Party: 94%, the Republican Party: 94%.
Republican Party win the MA-04 House seat?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+13.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this