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Markets/Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?
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Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?

Market Price

86%YES
14%NO

FM Estimate

81%
Vol 24h$27K
Liquidity$25K
Bid / Ask84% / 86%
Spread2.00pp
ClosesMay 15, 2026
Macro fundamentals-1.9pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets5 markets

5 deadline markets. Combined YES = 190% — 90pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

by June 30

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30

97%

by May 15

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15

86%
US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin War

US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is c

3%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate
+0.0pp
Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues
VenueYES %vs Poly
Polymarket86%anchor
PredictIt——

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?" at 86% YES / 14% NO. In the last 24 hours, $27K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 86%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on May 15, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-25). "Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 86%, NO 14%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1300296