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Markets/Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?
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Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?

Market Price

3%YES
97%NO

FM Estimate

2%
Vol 24h$16K
Liquidity$21K
Bid / Ask3% / 3%
Spread0.10pp
ClosesMay 15, 2026
Macro fundamentals-3.0pp
News velocity+1.2pp

low confidence · 3 signals

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets4 markets

4 deadline markets. Combined YES = 193% — 93pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

by June 30

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30

98%
by May 15

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15

91%

by May 1

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1

3%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate
+0.0pp
Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues
VenueYES %vs Poly
Polymarket3%anchor
PredictIt

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $16K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on May 15, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-27). "Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1320806