Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?
Closed March 7, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$15K
Liquidity
$25K
Expert Signal
7%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?
March
22 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
11% YES
Feb 28, 2026
Trough probability
3% YES — lowest in period
Mar 4, 2026
Biggest move: +24.5pp
6% → 31%
Mar 1, 2026
Peak probability
31% YES — highest in period
Mar 1, 2026
Current
10% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Mar 9, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Iran strike Turkey in March?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $15K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The market closes on March 7, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Iran strike Turkey in March?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1466422
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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