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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Will Iran strike Iraq again in March?
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Will Iran strike Iraq again in March?

Closed March 7, 2026

Polymarket Price

65%YES
35%NO

Volume 24h

$3K

Liquidity

$7K

Bid / Ask

64% / 67%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

65%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 65%99%
Buy YES@ 65¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 35¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Iran strike Iraq again in March?" at 65% YES / 35% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 65%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 7, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Iran strike Iraq again in March?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 65%, NO 35%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1629850