Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Will Iran strike Iraq again in March?
Closed March 7, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$7K
Bid / Ask
64% / 67%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
65%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?
March
22 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
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Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Iran strike Iraq again in March?" at 65% YES / 35% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 65%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 7, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Iran strike Iraq again in March?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 65%, NO 35%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1629850
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