Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?
Closed March 7, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$7K
Liquidity
$22K
Bid / Ask
3% / 4%
Spread
0.50pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?
March
25 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
18% YES
Feb 28, 2026
Trough probability
3% YES — lowest in period
Mar 22, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Mar 2, 2026
Biggest move: +35.5pp
6% → 42%
Mar 1, 2026
Peak probability
51% YES — highest in period
Mar 2, 2026
Current
4% YES (+0.1pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-10.4%
EV per $ wagered
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50 percentage points. The market closes on March 7, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1466423
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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