Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Will Green Alliance win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?
Closed March 8, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$384K
Liquidity
$3K
Bid / Ask
0% / 3%
Spread
2.80pp
Expert Signal
7%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Green Alliance win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $384K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 2.80 percentage points. The market closes on March 8, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Green Alliance win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1501208
This event has 6 active outcome markets. PLC: 94%, CD: 5%, Green Alliance: 2%.
Green Alliance win the third most seats in the 2026 Col
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
0% YES
Mar 24, 2026
Biggest move: +11.9pp
2% → 14%
Mar 31, 2026
Peak probability
14% YES — highest in period
Mar 31, 2026
Current
2% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+21.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this