Markets/US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?

US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?

Data as of Apr 9, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence · 2 signals

94%FIS

−1ppvs market 95%

overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -1.1pp below current market price; market at 95% may be overpriced driven by ISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

MacroOil +0.5% ↑, VIX -18.3% ↓, Gold +0.3% ↑

-1.3pp

Live compute05:37 AM

Polymarket Price

95%YES

5%NO

Volume 24h

$17K

Liquidity

$36K

Bid / Ask

95% / 95%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

95%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?" at 95% YES / 5% NO. In the last 24 hours, $17K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 95%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 95%, NO 5%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1570156

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. June 30, 2026: 95%, June 15, 2026: 94%, May 31, 2026: 93%.