ForecastMind
Markets/US x Iran meeting by June 15, 2026?
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US x Iran meeting by June 15, 2026?

Closes June 15, 2026

Polymarket Price

94%YES
6%NO

Volume 24h

$523

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

99% / 100%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-1.0pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran meeting by June 15, 2026?" at 94% YES / 6% NO. In the last 24 hours, $523 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on June 15, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "US x Iran meeting by June 15, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 94%, NO 6%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1911753

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+4.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

95% YES

Apr 9, 2026

Current

99% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 11, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 94%99%
Buy YES@ 94¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 6¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this