US x Iran meeting by June 15, 2026?
Closes June 15, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$523
Liquidity
$9K
Bid / Ask
99% / 100%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
98%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran meeting by June 15, 2026?" at 94% YES / 6% NO. In the last 24 hours, $523 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on June 15, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "US x Iran meeting by June 15, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 94%, NO 6%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1911753
This event has 20 active outcome markets. June 30, 2026: 99%, May 31, 2026: 99%, April 15, 2026: 99%.
US x Iran meeting by June 15, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
95% YES
Apr 9, 2026
Current
99% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 11, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this