Markets/US x Iran meeting by May 31, 2026?

US x Iran meeting by May 31, 2026?

Data as of Apr 9, 2026, 08:24 AM UTC

Closes May 31, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence · 2 signals

91%FIS

−1ppvs market 93%

overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -1.3pp below current market price; market at 93% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil +0.3% ↑, VIX -18.3% ↓, Gold +0.1% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroOil +0.3% ↑, VIX -18.3% ↓, Gold +0.1% ↑

-1.8pp

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

Live compute06:52 AM

Polymarket Price

93%YES

7%NO

Volume 24h

$16K

Liquidity

$15K

Bid / Ask

93% / 93%

Spread

0.30pp

Expert Signal

93%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.2pp

confidence50%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran meeting by May 31, 2026?" at 93% YES / 7% NO. In the last 24 hours, $16K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 93%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on May 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "US x Iran meeting by May 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 93%, NO 7%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1911754

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. June 30, 2026: 95%, June 15, 2026: 94%, May 31, 2026: 93%.