Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
Closes April 17, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$41K
Liquidity
$23K
Bid / Ask
52% / 54%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
53%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?" at 53% YES / 47% NO. In the last 24 hours, $41K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 53%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 17, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 53%, NO 47%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1632626
This event has 8 active outcome markets. Fabiano Caruana: 53%, Javokhir Sindarov: 29%, Praggnanandhaa R: 7%.
Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
41% YES
Mar 30, 2026
Current
41% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 30, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this