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Markets/Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
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Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Closes April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

11%YES
89%NO

Volume 24h

$399

Liquidity

$1K

Bid / Ask

4% / 18%

Spread

13.60pp

Expert Signal

11%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian…

2026

Full event →
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place
59%
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in
45%
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in th
29%
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in third place
19%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in seco
18%
Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the
16%
Will Yonhy Lescano finish in third place in t
13%
Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in third place in
12%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in third place in
12%
Will Mario Vizcarra finish in third place in
11%
Will Roberto Chiabra finish in third place in
11%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third plac
10%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in third place in
10%
Will Enrique Valderrama finish in third place
9%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in third place in
9%
Will José Williams finish in third place in t
7%
Will César Acuña finish in third place in the
7%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in third plac
6%
Will George Forsyth finish in third place in
6%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the
6%
Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place i
5%
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in t
5%
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in
5%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place i
5%
Will Carlos Espá finish in third place in the
5%
Will Vladimir Cerrón finish in third place in
4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third
4%
Will Fernando Haddad finish in third place in
4%
Will Fernando Olivera finish in third place i
4%
the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
3%
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the
3%
Will José Luna finish in third place in the f
3%
Will Marisol Pérez Tello finish in third plac
3%
Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in third place
3%
Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in third place in
2%
Will Camilo Santana finish in third place in
2%
Will Mesías Guevara finish in third place in
1%
Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in third place in
1%
Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in second place i
1%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in third place
1%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second pla
1%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in third place
0%
Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in
0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in
0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second plac
0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place
0%

46 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 11%99%
Buy YES@ 11¢
Edge

+0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO@ 89¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $399 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 13.60 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1656486

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