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Markets/Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
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Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Closes April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

3%YES
97%NO

Volume 24h

$361

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

2% / 4%

Spread

1.50pp

Expert Signal

3%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian…

2026

Full event →
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place
59%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first plac
44%
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in
39%
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in th
31%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in
24%
Will Enrique Valderrama finish in first place
22%
Will Fernando Olivera finish in first place i
22%
Will José Williams finish in first place in t
21%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in seco
18%
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in third place
17%
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in second plac
16%
Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the
15%
Will Vladimir Cerrón finish in first place in
13%
Will Yonhy Lescano finish in third place in t
12%
Will Roberto Chiabra finish in third place in
12%
Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in third place in
12%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in
12%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in third place in
12%
Will Mario Vizcarra finish in third place in
11%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third plac
11%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in
11%
Will Carlos Espá finish in first place in the
11%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in third place in
10%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in
10%
Will Mesías Guevara finish in first place in
10%
Will George Forsyth finish in first place in
10%
Will Enrique Valderrama finish in third place
9%
Will Mario Vizcarra finish in first place in
9%
Will Marisol Pérez Tello finish in first plac
9%
Will César Acuña finish in first place in the
9%
Will José Luna finish in first place in the f
9%
Will Yonhy Lescano finish in first place in t
9%
Will José Williams finish in second place in
9%
Will Roberto Chiabra finish in first place in
9%
Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in first place
8%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in third place in
8%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in second place in
8%
Will George Forsyth finish in third place in
8%
Will César Acuña finish in third place in the
8%
Will Enrique Valderrama finish in second plac
8%
Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in second place in
8%
Will George Forsyth finish in second place in
8%
Will José Williams finish in third place in t
7%
Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in first place in
7%
Will Mesías Guevara finish in second place in
7%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second pla
7%
Will Fernando Olivera finish in second place
7%
Will Roberto Chiabra finish in second place i
7%
Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in second plac
7%
Will Marisol Pérez Tello finish in second pla
7%
Will Mario Vizcarra finish in second place in
7%
Will José Luna finish in second place in the
7%
Will Vladimir Cerrón finish in second place i
7%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in third plac
6%
Will Yonhy Lescano finish in second place in
6%
Will Vladimir Cerrón finish in third place in
6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third
6%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the
6%
Will Carlos Espá finish in third place in the
6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in secon
6%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in th
6%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place i
6%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place i
5%
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in t
5%
Will Carlos Espá finish in second place in th
5%
Will César Acuña finish in second place in th
5%
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in
4%
Will Mesías Guevara finish in third place in
4%
Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place i
4%
Will Fernando Haddad finish in third place in
4%
the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
3%
Will Fernando Olivera finish in third place i
3%
Will José Luna finish in third place in the f
3%
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the
3%
Will Marisol Pérez Tello finish in third plac
3%
Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in third place
3%
Will Camilo Santana finish in third place in
2%
Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in third place in
1%
Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in third place in
1%
Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in second place i
1%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in third place
1%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second pla
1%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in third place
0%
Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in
0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in
0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second plac
0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place
0%

87 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 3%99%
Buy YES@ 3¢
Edge

+9.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO@ 97¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+9.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $361 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 1.50 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1656501

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