Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by between 10% and 15%?
Closed April 12, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.4pp below current market price; market at 3% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -1.3% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓, DXY -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$4K
Bid / Ask
1% / 4%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Rafael López Aliaga win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by between 10% and 15%?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Will Rafael López Aliaga win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by between 10% and 15%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1665863
This event has 30 active outcome markets. Keiko Fujimori: 32%, Ricardo Belmont: 23%, Rafael López Aliaga: 23%.
Rafael López Aliaga win the first round of the 2026 Per
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-10.4%
EV per $ wagered
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this