Markets/Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 23-29?

Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 23-29?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 09:23 PM UTC

Closes March 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

3%YES

97%NO

Volume 24h

$18K

Liquidity

$20K

Bid / Ask

3% / 3%

Spread

0.30pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Bitcoin Up or Down on March 23?

March

Full event →

28 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 3%99%

Buy YES@ 3¢

-4.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 97¢

Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly4.8%

½ Kelly2.4%

Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 4.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 23-29?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $18K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on March 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 23-29?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1688322

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