Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30?
Closes April 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$138
Liquidity
$15K
Bid / Ask
2% / 4%
Spread
1.80pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $138 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 1.80 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1693052
This event has 6 active outcome markets. April 30: 4%, April 30: 4%, April 30: 3%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~81%.
Jordan strike Iran by April 30?
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✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-3.2%
EV per $ wagered
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this