ForecastMind
Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 31?
Share on X

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 31?

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES
99%NO

Volume 24h

$21K

Liquidity

$17K

Bid / Ask

0% / 2%

Spread

1.30pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+90.5pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 31?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $21K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.30 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1705510

Outcome Markets8 markets

This event has 8 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,0: 57%, price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,0: 26%, price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,0: 14%.

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-5.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

7% YES

Mar 24, 2026

Trough probability

1% YES — lowest in period

Mar 31, 2026

Biggest move: -9.9pp

17% → 7%

Mar 30, 2026

Peak probability

18% YES — highest in period

Mar 27, 2026

Current

1% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

-4.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢
Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly4.8%
½ Kelly2.4%
Buy NO+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 4.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this