Military action against Iran ends on April 8, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$9K
Bid / Ask
2% / 3%
Spread
1.10pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends on April 8, 2026?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Military action against Iran ends on April 8, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706398
This event has 22 active outcome markets. Military action against Iran continues throug: 73%, Military action against Iran ends on April 9,: 5%, Military action against Iran ends on April 30: 3%.
Military action against Iran ends on April 8, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
1% YES
Apr 5, 2026
Current
3% YES (+0.5pp recent)
Apr 5, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+11.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this