Military action against Iran ends on April 30, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -0.7pp below current market price; market at 3% may be overpriced driven by ISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$905
Liquidity
$16K
Bid / Ask
2% / 4%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends on April 30, 2026?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $905 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Military action against Iran ends on April 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706420
This event has 24 active outcome markets. Military action against Iran continues throug: 72%, Military action against Iran ends on April 28: 3%, Military action against Iran ends on April 30: 3%.
Military action against Iran ends on April 30, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
1% YES
Apr 5, 2026
Current
3% YES (+0.1pp recent)
Apr 6, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+11.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this