Military action against Iran ends on April 22, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$12K
Liquidity
$10K
Bid / Ask
0% / 0%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends on April 22, 2026?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $12K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Military action against Iran ends on April 22, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706412
This event has 46 active outcome markets. April 30, 2026: 96%, April 28, 2026: 94%, June 30, 2026: 93%.
Military action against Iran ends on April 22, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
1% YES
Apr 5, 2026
Biggest move: +8.3pp
2% → 10%
Apr 8, 2026
Peak probability
10% YES — highest in period
Apr 8, 2026
Current
0% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 9, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this