Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?
Closes April 7, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$52K
Liquidity
$62K
Bid / Ask
19% / 20%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
20%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Military action against Iran ends on March 28, 2026?
March 2026
9 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
21% YES
Mar 24, 2026
Biggest move: -10.0pp
32% → 22%
Mar 25, 2026
Peak probability
34% YES — highest in period
Mar 25, 2026
Current
22% YES (-1.0pp recent)
Mar 27, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.6%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?" at 20% YES / 80% NO. In the last 24 hours, $52K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 20%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 7, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-27). "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 20%, NO 80%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706482
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Forecaster Signals
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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